Q4 2015
And Year End
Q4 was another record breaking quarter both in revenue and profits. Finishing the year at nearly $3.4M in revenue we are proud of our 3.4X growth over 2014.
The quarter didn’t end without its struggles, especially when it came to keeping product in stock. The entire month was a battle as we sold out, re-stocked, and sold out again. It sounds like a great problem to have except when you accept more orders than you can deliver, causing high levels of customer frustration. This resulted in a back breaking level of customer emails and long nights managing order fulfillment.
Even with this stress, we are proud to have delivered the most profitable quarter in our history, a trend we plan to continue.
Some highlights from the quarter…
- We took took our latest off-site to Snoqualmie Washington.
- Our first holiday campaigns were met with positive customer response. It culminated in two lookbooks that bring the Moment product line to life.
- Our customers sent 40% more emails this quarter over the previous quarter, which was another record breaking result. We even maintained a 75% customer happiness score through our stock struggles.
- We launched a lot of new accessories, including Straps for your case and a Triple Holster to carry your lenses.
- We shipped the Moment 6+ Case to backers and new customers. Our first production run was small, we ran out in a matter of days.
- We shipped versions 2.2 and 2.3 of our app.
- Thanks to our amazing suppliers we were able to create a 2016 plan with us, including better payment terms and monthly deliveries. This will enable us two smooth out the business in 2016. Running out of stock should be an experience of the past.
- We built our first annual product plan to use for internal planning purposes.
- Sam Graves took a street team adventure to the California Coast and Vincent Carabeo took a group to the Olympic Peninsula.
- We partnered with awesome brands like Ather for photography assignments.
- We published more rad stories. Sam Elkins took an awesome roadtrip west. Daniel White went to the Dominican Republic. Christian Cannon got lost in Maui.
We haven’t worked harder than we did this last quarter. By the end we were ready for a break!
KEY DRIVERS
Moment’s business is about customers and how much they spend. So we are focused on four drivers.
1. Number Of Customers.
We added 16.7K customers in 2015, which was a 203% growth over 2014. Of which 6,589 were added in Q4 alone.
Looking at the whole year we see Kickstarter (July) and holiday (December) being the biggest drivers for customer growth.
2. How Much They Spend.
Customers spend more money with us over time. In particular the more products we have available for purchase, the higher the average order value is. Now at $145 per order, we see that nearly 72% of our customer purchasing is spent on their first order. This re-enforces how important it is to remain in stock at all times.
Not being in stock at all times is directly reflected in items per order. With the Wide Lens and 6+ Case out of stock in Q4, our items per order dipped.
Customer spend per cohort is following a similar rise. Higher order values has been the largest contributing factor.
Breaking down dollars per cohort over time we see an interesting trend. Holiday appears to account for 40-50% of a cohort’s future spend. While Kickstarter (i.e. introduction of new products) appears to drive 35-45% of future spend.
Being able to drive future revenue from existing customers will also help us strengthen the profits of the business. With some cohorts reaching 35% of future sales we need to find ways to drive each cohort to contribute to 40% of future sales
3. What It Costs To Acquire A Customer.
Outside of some basic re-targeting efforts, our entire customer acquisition strategy been built around an organic, word of mouth approach. Our content to commerce strategy is built around Content, Community (customers -> influencers), and Shopping (direct to consumer platform).
We see this strategy reflected in our acquisition channels, where over 70% of our customers come directly to our website. Looking at the data in 2015 versus 2014 we are pleased to see that acquisition through email rose from 3.5% to nearly 14%. This is a tribute to our efforts to improve both our content and commerce emails.
Conversion rates continue to be higher for repeat visitors. As we move into paid acquisition tactics it will be interesting to see how many times people need to see Moment until they buy.
A disturbing trend is that our customer acquisition costs continue to rise. Even during record quarters, the addition of people is resulting in a rising customer acquisition cost. In addition our first attempt at adventures didn’t produce a positive content ROI, something we will be revisiting in 2016.
(please note that we adjusted our CAC numbers in Q4 by removing credit card fees, as we were advised these aren’t really part of a CAC cost).
We continue to see strong profits over the life time of a customer. While our cost to acquire continues to shrink our LTV to CAC multiple. Although these numbers are solid, we would like to see them moving the opposite direction.
4. How Happy Our Customers Are
Being out of stock had a direct impact on our NPS score. We are still pushing to reach an NPS over 70.
Product and merchandising improvements are definitely areas we can focus on to drive our NPS number up
We thought Q3 was a record high for managing customer emails, until we hit Q4 where the demand increased by 54%.
Comparing customer volume in Q4 2015 to the previous year we see a 232% increase year over year. Thankfully that was less than the 3.4x growth we saw in year over year sales.
We started tracking customer happiness and were pleased to see that over 83% of our customers thought our service was great.
2015 FINANCIAL RESULTS
2015 was a historic year for us in both revenue and profits. It was also our first calendar year of results, as we we didn’t start shipping product until Q3 of 2014.
A few highlights from the year.
- We reached $3.45M in revenue, which represents 3.5x growth over 2014.
- We lost $250K for the year but were profitable quarter over quarter in Q3 and Q4. We just couldn’t make up the losses from Q1 and Q2 where we invested heavily in new product tooling.
- Our loss of 7% is down from a loss of 47% in 2014.
- Gross margins rose 24% in 2015 to reach 48% (this includes shipping costs). Without shipping costs we had 55% gross margins.
- Inventory turns rose to 4.6 and Gross Margin ROI to 5.1, which shows we continue to be efficient with capital.
- The team grew from 4 to 12 while revenue employee also increased from $127K to $287K.
Revenue
Q4 was another record quarter, nearly reaching $1.5M in revenue. That resulted in year over year growth of 352%.
Looking at where this revenue comes from we see that about 30% of our customers are outside the US. There is a lot of potential growth internationally, especially considering that 75% of Instagram’s users is outside the U.S.
On average, about 40% of our customers repeat purchase. This is a trend we desperately need to continue as we growth. Getting a new customer is much more expensive that enabling our existing ones.
Lenses are still the lead product for us. With the introduction of the Moment Case in Q4 it will be interesting to see how this mix shifts over time. Having 23% of our customers buy at least a lens, case, and accessory is a solid start.
We are encouraged by the growth in accessory sales, which we call Essentials. This is a trend we will look to improve upon in 2016 with better store merchandising.
COGS
Shipping continues to be a meaningful contributor to our overall cogs. Our direct to consumer approach does impact our margins as charging the full rates we believe would lead to lower sales. Granted this is less than the impact on margins that retail channels would have.
On a per order basis we closed the gap throughout the year between shipping cogs and revenue. This is a positive sign.
We see this gap better reflected when looking at shipping costs as a ratio over shipping revenue. What this tells us is that we started the year with shipping costs being over 2x the value of shipping revenue. We have bought this ratio down to 1.5x where shipping costs are 50% move than shipping revenue.
Gross Margins
Gross Margins improved by 24% year over year. This is definitely a positive sign considering both years included a Kickstarter project which are notorious for large, unforeseen shipping costs. This time around we did a better job of managing customer expectations, charging for additional shipping, and canceling orders that were cost prohibitive locations.
The biggest potential improvement in gross margins will be to reduce our product cost basis through volume and to sell more cases where margins are higher than lenses.
In Q4 we held our first annual, 72 hour sale. This included a 20% discount which was reflected in the lowering of our overall selling price. Despite this dip, our margins rose in Q4 over Q3. The addition of the Moment Case and new Essentials helped to maintain healthy margins despite slightly lower prices.
A growing Gross Margin ROI (GMROI) continues to show us that an investment in inventory provides us a positive return.
Inventory
Running out of stock on key products had a meaningful impact on the business in 2015. Although it’s not totally reflected in end of quarter numbers because of last minute restocking, we did miss sales which coincidently lead to a massive increase in customer emails. The resulting strain was felt across the entire company. If we learned anything, it is to be more aggressive with our line of credit in ordering future product.
Selling out quickly of key products did increase our inventory turns.
Investment In Product
We continue to invest in new products, focusing Q4 on finishing the Moment 6+ Case. People and tooling continue to be our largest drivers.
We haven’t been able to track all costs to each product project but we are now starting to see a massive ROI on our efforts. What we do know is that a new product takes about 6 quarters in the market until the ROI really spikes.
Running The Company
We continue to run an efficient organization. Software and minimal overhead allows us to keep everyone working on driving customer value. At 12 full time people we are starting to test this model.
Despite our growth in people we have seen a 225% increase in revenue per employee. Finishing the year at $287K we have a long ways to go in reaching either FitBit ($1.6M per employee) or GoPro ($1.4M per employee).
In looking at the costs to run the company we do include our e-commerce credit card fees, loss from fraud, and future investments in patents.
In 2015 we lost $57K from fraud and or fraud prevention. This was our first real cases of fraud, where customers would use stolen international cards to buy product. They would then have the product shipped to different addresses within the UK at which point we didn’t know it was fraud for 45-60 days later when the bank of the stolen credit card would report it. By the time we realized the loses in Q3 it was too late to stop what had already happened. We now work with a company called Signifyd that charges us 1% of sales to guarantee that all sales are free from fraud. Although expensive, the cost is less than the amount we lost in money and time.
Cash Flow
Cash is still king, especially in managing our supply chain. To date the business has worked off of spot orders which means large payments for bulk product orders. This forces our cash reserves to swing wildly while leaving us with large inventory gaps if we sell out before the next order arrives. This cycle will be much smoother in 2016 as we work with our suppliers to smooth out consistent monthly deliveries.
At the end of the year we still have $300K of a $500K City National Bank credit line. We plan to use this line in 2016 with inventory purchasing.
Net Income
We had our second profitable quarter! We couldn’t make up the loses in the back half of the year from the first half, but we did experience quarter over quarter growth in profits. This is a positive trend we want to continue into 2016.
Within the $250K that we lost in 2015 about 70% was from our up front investment in product tooling. This is a cost that we expense even though it is realized over the life of a product. The other large contributor was fraud and fraud prevention, which made up another 22% of the loss. This was an expense we weren’t accustomed to in 2014 and did a poor job of being prepared for it as the business grew. Thankfully it’s a lesson we are learning early in our history.