Q4 2016
And Year End
Q4 is our busiest quarter of the year because holiday gifting is one of the biggest reasons people buy Moment. What made this year more challenging was the announcement of iPhone 7/7+ and the introduction of dual lenses on these new phones. From their announcement in September to our compatibility confirmation in October, we lost about six weeks of sales as customers waited to find out our fate. This put significant pressure on the final weeks of the quarter.
In the end, Q4 resulted in our best results in the history of the company.
Some additional highlights from the quarter….
+ We opened up our first US warehouse with our new logistics provider, Landmark. This lowered shipping prices and added seven additional shipping days to the calendar.
+ We shipped iPhone 7/7+ mounting plates just in time for the holidays. Ultimately the variance in phone lens dimensions pushed us to bring our next generation products to market in Q1, 2017.
+ Along with new mounting plates we introduced new carrying case accessories, which sold out in a matter of days.
+ Moment Films, Season 1 wrapped up, gaining over 500K views in the process.
+ We executed our first quarter with our content first strategy. We grew our reader base to 38K unique readers.
+ Filling in the gaps between the data we learned from our best customers that press and referrals are the primary reasons that they purchased Moment.
KEY DRIVERS
Moment is an e-commerce business, which means we focus on four key drivers.
1. Number Of Customers
We grew our customer base by 10,004 in Q4, bringing us to 48,579 total customers. This resulted in 53.6% year over year growth for the quarter and 41.5% for the year. Adding a significant number of new customers we believe will result in future revenues as we continue to introduce new products. We have always found that acquiring new customers is the hardest aspect of our business.
Most of the customer growth came in the US, which saw 65% year over year growth. Opening a new warehouse in the US lowered our shipping costs and extended a customer’s timeline to purchase. We hope to see similar gains internationally in 2017 as we open new warehouses around the world.
Diving deeper into where our customers come from we can see that major metropolitan cities, especially ones known for design and photography, represent our largest markets. These cities provide us with a geographic road map into the future.
Our audience and customer base is still a male heavy, technology loving demographic.
2. How Much They Spend
We saw a dramatic drop in average order value in Q4, down to $113.83 for the quarter. We held our most aggressive sales yet, testing how this would impact conversion rates and performance. We also wanted to turn as much of our inventory into cash as we move into Q1’17 with several new products, therefore we leaned towards a more aggressive strategy. Finally, changes to our purchase flow inadvertently lowered the average items per order. Issues we will fix in Q1.
Tracking what percentage of customers have purchase which products we see that Q4 was strong for lenses but weaker for everything else. Not having new cases in Q4 for iPhone 7/7+ meant that customers only had the option to buy new lenses. Moving accessory attachments below the “add to cart button” lowered the rate that people bought accessories. We expect this mix to shift to more cases as we introduce new products in Q1, 2017.
Our average lifetime value by cohort continues to rise, toping out at $233. Despite the Q4 cohort starting at $142.1 we expect this group to rise in lifetime value over time as they purchase more of the product line.
Despite average spending in Q4 being lower we still saw 42.45% of sales coming from previous cohorts, which continues to demonstrate that Moment customers come back to buy more. We can’t launch new products fast enough.
3. What It Costs To Acquire A Customer
We continue to learn more and more about customer acquisition. This was our first quarter in shifting the team from a community focus, to a content focus.
The team continues to be a large portion of our customer acquisition spend as we continue to execute a word of mouth strategy. We expect this mix to shift over the coming quarters when we begin to experiment more with paid acquisition. We don’t need more people, we need more sales against the bodies we already have.
Focusing on content we saw our largest quarterly growth in Momentist readers. We reached nearly 40K new readers, resulting in 11.5% of new website visitors landing on the Momentist. We will continue to become more and more sophisticated on how to attract, convert, and engage our readers. We still have a lot to learn over the coming quarters.
Q4 always makes an averaged CAC metric look better. Q3 suffered from ambiguity around the future of Moment with two lens iPhone 7+. While Q4 benefited from the pent up demand wanting to use Moment on iPhone 7+. Our blended CAC (total spend to reach customers) is back under $40.
On an annual basis our customer acquisition costs are rising. Our goal is to maintain a 3:1 ratio on lifetime revenue to customer acquisition costs, which puts us right in line with where we wanted to be. We’re still experimenting with which channels work best to profitably acquire customers.
4. How Happy Our Customers Are
This was the best NPS quarter in our history, averaging a score of 54 for the quarter. This result was a testament to the improved shopping experience and customer service we delivered. Overall this brought us up two points to a score of 48. In Q4 we also came to the conclusion that we can never reach our NPS target of 70 on the current generation of product. The introduction of our second generation will improve on all the user experience details that customers don’t like.
One of the biggest improvements we made in Q4 was the quality of the service we delivered. This season everyone contributed on a weekly basis compared to last year where six people did all the work. Beyond better service, everyone contributing meant that no one had to bear the brunt in dealing with a massive number of emails. After the 2015 holidays two out of six people quit because of the volume. Everyone contributing to service, on a weekly basis, has slowly become core to our DNA. We believe all of us make better decisions when we are connected directly with our own customers.
Looking at Q4 year over year results.
FINANCIAL RESULTS
We reached our first $1.5M quarter, passing $5M for 2016 on 49% year over year growth. Deep into Q4 we were no where near this final result but in the last four weeks we brought in nearly $1M in revenue.
2016 also represented our first foray into retail, partnering with B&H and Apple to introduce Moment in 50 stores. In total, retail accounted for 3% of our sales for the year.
Gross margins took a hit in Q4, reaching a historic low of 40%. This result was attributed to three things.
1. We lowered MSRP prices to sell through more inventory, reducing our margins by 4% to 52% on product.
2. We opened up a new US warehouse, requiring us to air/sea freight significant quantities of inventory. This lowered our gross margins by another 3%.
3. Lastly we were more aggressive with free shipping, costing us another 1%.
In total we lost 8% in gross margin compared to Q3. We expect gross margins to remain weak over the coming quarters as we move through our existing generation one products and test the opening of our own Amazon FBA store. We are expanding to more expensive channels without any changes to he cost structure of our inventory.
Lower gross margins in Q4 along with new product spend resulted in a $245K loss for the quarter. That brought 2016 to an 8% loss at $415K lost for the year. That is an improvement from 2015 when we lost 13% and 2014 when we lost 48%. We are looking to bring Moment closer and closer to the 0% profit line.
Additional financial highlights:
+ Direct sales grew 42.7% in 2016 and 22.4% in Q4 (year over year).
+ Retail represented 2% of total sales in the quarter and 3% for the year.
+ Gross margins dropped to 52% for product and 40% all-in with shipping costs to customers, retailers, and warehouses.
+ We lost $245K for the quarter with increased spend on new products and reaching customers. In total we lost 8% on the year, totaling $415K.
+ Customer acquisition costs lowered dramatically, averaging $38 for 2016. Paid accounted for just 6% of total spend.
+ The cost to run the company (minus credit card fees) dropped to 9% in Q4, averaging 13% for 2016.
+ We lowered ending inventory balances by 17% to $1.0M. Inventory turns lowered to 3.0 for the year, impacted by case inventories.
+ We ended the year with $1.8M in cash.
Revenue
Q4 was a record quarter, bringing in $1.76M in revenue. That pushed is over $5M for the year. Direct accounted for 97% and Retail was the remaining 3% in 2016.
Looking at average prices we can see that we were much more aggressive this year on sales. We expect our prices to come down over time as we push to reach a larger purchasing audience. An expensive price is one of the biggest non-customer complaints that we hear. We will have to continue bringing down our COGS structure in order to bring down retail prices.
Lower prices had an impact on conversion rates as we reached an all time high of 2.4%. Better shipping also made an impact, but it’s hard for us to test which initiative had a greater impact on the number.
COGS
By moving from one warehouse to two, we immediately saw the COGS impact in shipping product between locations. Moving large quantities of product from HK to the US, air shipments cost nearly a $1 per unit, while boat shipments cost about $0.10 per unit. Reducing product COGS and minimizing supply chain costs will be a big focus going in 2017.
In opening up a US warehouse we closed the gap between shipping revenue and cogs from $5.4 to $3.5 per order. That’s a 35% savings per order, something we look to continue to improve upon as we move the product closer to the customer.
Looking at this gap on an annualized basis you can see year over year improvements as we increase conversion rates and minimize the loss from shipping.
Gross Margins
Q4 was one of our worst quarters for gross margins. Discussed above, we expect gross margins to remain tight as we continue to close out our generation one products.
On an annual basis we have done a solid job of holding our gross margins even as the product has aged. This is an area we will look to improve upon every year.
Lower Q4 margins did have a negative impact on GMROI, while our case inventory levels continue to be too high. We expect to make improvements in the coming quarters.
Inventory
Inventory saw a steady decline from $1.2M to just over $1.0M at the end of Q4. This year we did a significantly better job of managing inventory balances as we did not repeat last year’s disaster in running out of product. We ended the quarter with accessories accounting for 19%, lenses for 46%, and cases for 35%.
Inventory turns settled in at 3.0 at the end of the year. We would like to continue reducing inventories, improving our turns closer to 4x per year. As we move to using more boat shipments we will have more inventory tied up in transit, something to monitor closely over the coming quarters.
Investment In Product
In Q4 we need significant investments in new product initiatives. These products will be announced in Q1 2017. The cost of people, especially designers and engineers, continues to be the large majority of our spend.
The full year had a similar mix to Q4.
We have invested about $1M in new products each of the last year. As we expand our product lines, finding more engineers will be our biggest challenge. We expect to add more and more value through software over time.
Running The Company
We maintained our team size of 20 at the end of Q4. It’s easy to throw more bodies at the problem, especially in reaching more customers. In 2017 we plan to spend more on marketing per employee compared to previous years as we expand our customer based through larger and larger marketing bets.
Looking at revenue per employee on an annual basis, we are heading the right direction. We still have a lot of work to do in improving this number.
Cash
Our inventory/parts in process balances dropped by 35% over the past two quarters. Not running out of inventory this year had a positive impact on our business. But losing money the last three quarters is having a negative impact on our cash reserves. We expect inventory to continue dropping as we make way for our second generation products in 2017. We still have a $1.25M line of credit available if needed.
Income
The back half of the year was not the trend we were looking for. The raising of salaries to near market rate, the spending on new products, and lower margins all had an impact on our profits. We lost 8% this year compared to 13% last year, but we would like to be running Moment right at 0%.